Reducing the item level of a desired base type in order to increase likelihood of desirable outcome by reducing potential modifier pool
Areas of particular interest/strength include:
-fossil crafting for specific notable combinations on cluster jewels
-limiting vaal implicit potential outcomes on uniques
-limiting flask suffix outcomes
-crafting specific weapons with large modifier pools (especially hybrid bases)
The difference between walking into a casino and being the casino. The house always wins because of favorably weighted net outcomes. Roulette pays 35x your bet if you guess the right number on a wheel with 38 numbers. Over time they cannot lose as a matter of mathematical certainty.
It is in this spirit that we approach crafting. Decisions are either informed by data with a consideration for net positive outcomes, or they are not. The former is a calculated risk, the latter a gamble.
Saving money/time by increasing levels of production.
For example, crafting 20 flasks at once and selling useful outcomes rather than rolling over valuable, but undesired, T1 suffixes.
Can also be used to offset variance/deviation in probability based pursuits for example, double corrupting gems and items.
In short, the more you do/make the greater the return.
The purposeful choice to defer short term character improvement early league to purchase items that have historical mid/late build value, buying before their optimal use case and therefore demand will net huge profits.
Repeated throughout the league by tracking historical trends, using some inductive reasoning, and as the league comes to its end - checking standard league prices as items with massive gaps in price will migrate towards their standard value due to inter-league flippers.
Targeting popular builds with your crafts can be a lucrative pursuit- however, always be cautious of this as with increased demand will come increased supply. The scalability of these builds into late league is an important consideration when beginning your craft. If the build itself is a stepping-stone feeder build, there will eventually be a moment where not only is there a huge supply from crafters, but also from those who sell their gear to move onto a more end-game focused build.
Crafting away from the meta can be equally as lucrative if you understand the needs of specific builds- since these often have a very low supply, and people who play niche builds are often doing so out of passion- they will likely pay more for the "perfect item"-- keep in mind these items will take longer to sell, but can produce far greater margins of return.
This is definitely one of the most experience contingent elements of trading, and probably the hardest part to master.
Consider that value is not a hard metric and shifts with the passage of time and is very subjective. Price is not everything as well, selling an item (especially a niche one) may not be a matter of how you have priced it-- if it is one of a kind and is for sale at 50 divines, the market for that item will very unlikely change at 40 divines. Exercising patience is key, but at the same time-- the inverse is also true.
Items of a highly liquid nature that are in steady supply are often best sold faster, than for more.
Compounding rates of return are a FAR more powerful method for wealth than absolute return on a per trade basis.
Making 20% once an hour on a trade is far far far better than making 100% once a day.
Distinguishing between either approach will come down to the player, and your time constraints- but don't be afraid to sell an item for a little bit less than you wanted if the alternative is a much longer or unknown sales period. Liquid capital is very important as is the mobility of your currency.